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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Manvel Gamburyan won · SUB R2

Elo1358

Elo1458

Manvel GamburyanvsCody GibsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Manvel Gamburyan won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:56

Style matchupManvel Gamburyan: WrestlervsCody Gibson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Manvel Gamburyan wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Manvel Gamburyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manvel Gamburyan at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Gibson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cody Gibson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Manvel Gamburyan

Red Corner

Cody Gibson

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1358

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manvel GamburyanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cole Miller · Aug 13

vs Nik Lentz · May 14

vs Scott Jorgensen · Jul 15

KOvs John Dodson · Apr 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Nov 16

latest

Cody GibsonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jul 24

vs Chad Anheliger · Nov 24

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Mar 25

KOvs Aoriqileng · Oct 25

SUBvs Abdul Hussein · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manvel GamburyanMetricCody Gibson

2.13

Strikes / min

3.63

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

55%

Strike defense

57%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

2.12

69%

Takedown defense

69%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.70Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manvel GamburyanCody Gibson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manvel Gamburyan(9 fights)Cody Gibson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -99.4|Blue +99.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manvel GamburyanTargetCody Gibson

By target zone

12% acc · 45%

Head

34% acc · 71%

50% acc · 18%

Body

92% acc · 22%

80% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

19% acc · 73%

Distance

33% acc · 57%

38% acc · 27%

Clinch

68% acc · 35%

0% acc

Ground

57% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manvel Gamburyan rounds

even

Cody Gibson rounds

Round 1Cody Gibson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:32

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Cody Gibson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:57Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 52

Sig Strikes

49 / 118

20.5%

Sig Str %

42%

20 / 63

Total Strikes

61 / 131

2 / 6

TDs

1 / 2

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

2:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Gibson	29 / 75	32 / 78	0 / 0	0
1	Manvel Gamburyan	7 / 27	8 / 30	1 / 3	0
2	Cody Gibson	20 / 43	29 / 53	1 / 2	0
2	Manvel Gamburyan	4 / 25	12 / 33	1 / 3	1

Manvel Gamburyan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9

Cody Gibson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11