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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Manuel Torres won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1514

Elo1502

Manuel TorresvsNikolas MottaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Saturday, June 17, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Manuel Torres won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:50

Style matchupManuel Torres: Pressure fightervsNikolas Motta: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Manuel Torres wins(88.5%)

Actual result: Manuel Torres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manuel Torres at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manuel Torres is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Nikolas Motta has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Nikolas Motta is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Manuel Torres has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Manuel Torres (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Manuel Torres

Red Corner

Nikolas Motta

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1514

Elo

1502

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manuel Torres

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Feb 24

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Sep 24

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 25

KOvs Grant Dawson · Dec 25

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 26

latest

Nikolas Motta

oldest →

KOvs Jim Miller · Feb 22

KOvs Cameron VanCamp · Sep 22

KOvs Tom Nolan · Jan 24

vs Maheshate · Nov 24

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manuel TorresMetricNikolas Motta

7.29

Strikes / min

4.13

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

5.28

54%

Strike defense

52%

1.72

TDs / 15 min

0.00

90%

Takedown defense

83%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.21Δ 4.36 — meaningful gap-1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manuel TorresNikolas Motta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manuel Torres(7 fights)Nikolas Motta(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.5|Blue -11.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manuel TorresTargetNikolas Motta

By target zone

43% acc · 23%

Head

30% acc · 43%

100% acc · 46%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

75% acc · 92%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manuel Torres rounds

even

Nikolas Motta rounds

Round 1Manuel Torres edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 17

Sig Strikes

7 / 14

76%

Sig Str %

50%

13 / 17

Total Strikes

7 / 14

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nikolas Motta	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Manuel Torres	13 / 17	13 / 17	0 / 0	0

Manuel Torres

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Nikolas Motta

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6