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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ignacio Bahamondes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1514

Elo1502

Manuel TorresvsIgnacio BahamondesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ignacio Bahamondes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:02

Style matchupManuel Torres: Pressure fightervsIgnacio Bahamondes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Manuel Torres wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Ignacio Bahamondes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manuel Torres at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ignacio Bahamondes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Manuel Torres has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Manuel Torres has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Manuel Torres (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Manuel Torres

Red Corner

Ignacio Bahamondes

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1514

Elo

1502

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manuel Torres

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jun 23

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Feb 24

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 25

KOvs Grant Dawson · Dec 25

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 26

latest

Ignacio BahamondesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ludovit Klein · Aug 23

KOvs Christos Giagos · Apr 24

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Mar 25

vs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 25

vs Tofiq Musayev · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manuel TorresMetricIgnacio Bahamondes

7.29

Strikes / min

5.99

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

54%

Strike defense

55%

1.72

TDs / 15 min

0.00

90%

Takedown defense

70%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.21Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manuel TorresIgnacio Bahamondes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manuel Torres(7 fights)Ignacio Bahamondes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.0|Blue -12.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manuel TorresTargetIgnacio Bahamondes

By target zone

30% acc · 45%

Head

54% acc · 81%

100% acc · 50%

Body

75% acc · 10%

33% acc · 5%

Leg

38% acc · 10%

By position

34% acc · 60%

Distance

44% acc · 35%

100% acc · 40%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

55% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manuel Torres rounds

even

Ignacio Bahamondes rounds

Round 1Ignacio Bahamondes edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:20

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 43

Sig Strikes

31 / 58

46%

Sig Str %

53%

20 / 43

Total Strikes

36 / 63

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ignacio Bahamondes	31 / 58	36 / 63	0 / 0	0
1	Manuel Torres	20 / 43	20 / 43	0 / 0	0

Manuel Torres

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Ignacio Bahamondes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10