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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Manuel Torres won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1514

Elo1514

Manuel TorresvsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Manuel Torres won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:45

Style matchupManuel Torres: Pressure fightervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Manuel Torres wins(84.7%)

Actual result: Manuel Torres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manuel Torres at -124 American odds

+$81 profit

$181 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Drew Dober is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Manuel Torres has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Manuel Torres has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Manuel Torres (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Manuel Torres

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

-124

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+106

(49%)

1514

Elo

1514

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manuel Torres

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jun 23

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Feb 24

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Sep 24

KOvs Grant Dawson · Dec 25

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 26

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Oct 23

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manuel TorresMetricDrew Dober

7.29

Strikes / min

4.48

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

54%

Strike defense

53%

1.72

TDs / 15 min

0.61

90%

Takedown defense

58%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.21Δ 3.06 — meaningful gap+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manuel TorresDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manuel Torres(7 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manuel TorresTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

91% acc · 91%

Head

40% acc · 67%

100% acc · 9%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

78% acc · 30%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 70%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manuel Torres rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Manuel Torres edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 25

Sig Strikes

3 / 9

92%

Sig Str %

33%

23 / 25

Total Strikes

3 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Drew Dober	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Manuel Torres	23 / 25	23 / 25	0 / 0	0

Manuel Torres

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26