← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Mantas Kondratavicius won · U-DEC R3

Elo1517

Elo1429

Mantas KondrataviciusvsAntonio TrocoliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mantas Kondratavicius won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mantas Kondratavicius wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Mantas Kondratavicius wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mantas Kondratavicius at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Trocoli enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mantas Kondratavicius has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mantas Kondratavicius has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Antonio Trocoli has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mantas Kondratavicius

Red Corner

Antonio Trocoli

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+490

(17%)

1517

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'5"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mantas KondrataviciusNo prior UFC fights on record.

Antonio TrocoliL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 24

SUBvs Tresean Gore · Nov 24

SUBvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mantas KondrataviciusMetricAntonio Trocoli

4.97

Strikes / min

1.27

1.30

Strikes absorbed / min

5.30

57%

Strike defense

26%

2.80

TDs / 15 min

0.88

91%

Takedown defense

42%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.67Δ 7.70 — meaningful gap-4.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mantas KondrataviciusAntonio Trocoli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mantas Kondratavicius(1 fights)Antonio Trocoli(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.1|Blue -88.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mantas KondrataviciusTargetAntonio Trocoli

By target zone

66% acc · 81%

Head

36% acc · 59%

100% acc · 19%

Body

43% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

62% acc · 56%

Distance

43% acc · 88%

89% acc · 23%

Clinch

50% acc · 12%

80% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mantas Kondratavicius rounds

even

Antonio Trocoli rounds

Round 1Mantas Kondratavicius edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control1:52

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Mantas Kondratavicius edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control3:37

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Antonio Trocoli edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:37

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 107

Sig Strikes

17 / 39

64%

Sig Str %

44%

135 / 177

Total Strikes

29 / 54

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 12

50%

TD %

4.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:06

Ctrl Time

5:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Antonio Trocoli	6 / 14	9 / 19	0 / 1	0
1	Mantas Kondratavicius	28 / 42	41 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Antonio Trocoli	5 / 10	7 / 12	0 / 4	0
2	Mantas Kondratavicius	39 / 47	73 / 88	1 / 2	1
3	Antonio Trocoli	6 / 15	13 / 23	1 / 7	0
3	Mantas Kondratavicius	8 / 18	21 / 33	1 / 2	0

Mantas Kondratavicius

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights1

Antonio Trocoli

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4