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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Yousri Belgaroui won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1518

Mansur Abdul-Malik editorial illustration

Elo1545

Mansur Abdul-MalikvsYousri BelgarouiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Yousri Belgaroui won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:39

Style matchupMansur Abdul-Malik: Well-roundedvsYousri Belgaroui: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Yousri Belgaroui wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Yousri Belgaroui wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yousri Belgaroui at +124 American odds

+$124 profit

$224 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yousri Belgaroui is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Mansur Abdul-Malik has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Yousri Belgaroui has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mansur Abdul-Malik has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Red Corner

Yousri Belgaroui

Blue Corner

-158

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+124

(45%)

1518

Elo

1545

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'6"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mansur Abdul-Malik

oldest →

KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Nov 24

KOvs Nick Klein · Feb 25

vs Cody Brundage · Jun 25

SUBvs Antonio Trocoli · Dec 25

latest

Yousri Belgaroui

oldest →

KOvs Azamat Bekoev · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mansur Abdul-MalikMetricYousri Belgaroui

3.28

Strikes / min

6.10

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

46%

Strike defense

63%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.29

83%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.21Δ 5.14 — meaningful gap+3.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mansur Abdul-MalikYousri Belgaroui

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mansur Abdul-Malik(5 fights)Yousri Belgaroui(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.8|Blue +26.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mansur Abdul-MalikTargetYousri Belgaroui

By target zone

22% acc · 63%

Head

52% acc · 57%

33% acc · 19%

Body

69% acc · 23%

50% acc · 19%

Leg

86% acc · 19%

By position

25% acc · 88%

Distance

56% acc · 80%

40% acc · 13%

Clinch

85% acc · 18%

Ground

67% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mansur Abdul-Malik rounds

even

Yousri Belgaroui rounds

Round 1Yousri Belgaroui edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Yousri Belgaroui edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control1:20

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Yousri Belgaroui edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:47

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 60

Sig Strikes

94 / 156

25.3%

Sig Str %

58.3%

16 / 61

Total Strikes

107 / 170

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

37.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:07

Ctrl Time

0:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yousri Belgaroui	22 / 47	22 / 47	0 / 0
1	Mansur Abdul-Malik	7 / 24	7 / 24	0 / 0
2	Yousri Belgaroui	44 / 63	55 / 74	0 / 0
2	Mansur Abdul-Malik	7 / 20	7 / 21	2 / 4
3	Yousri Belgaroui	28 / 46	30 / 49	0 / 0
3	Mansur Abdul-Malik	2 / 16	2 / 16	1 / 4

Mansur Abdul-Malik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights5

Yousri Belgaroui

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights2