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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Mansur Abdul-Malik won · SUB R1
Elo1518
Mansur Abdul-Malik editorial illustration
Elo1429

Mansur Abdul-MalikvsAntonio TrocoliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mansur Abdul-Malik won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:09

Model Prediction: Mansur Abdul-Malik wins(89.5%)

Actual result: Mansur Abdul-Malik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mansur Abdul-Malik at -1800 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Antonio Trocoli enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mansur Abdul-Malik
Red Corner
VS
Antonio Trocoli
Blue Corner
-1800
(95%)
Vegas Odds
+980
(9%)
1518
Elo
1429
28
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'5"
203.2 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mansur Abdul-Malik
oldest →
W
KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Nov 24
W
KOvs Nick Klein · Feb 25
D
vs Cody Brundage · Jun 25
L
KOvs Yousri Belgaroui · Mar 26
latest
Antonio TrocoliL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Tresean Gore · Nov 24
L
vs Mantas Kondratavicius · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mansur Abdul-MalikMetricAntonio Trocoli
3.28
Strikes / min
1.27
4.49
Strikes absorbed / min
5.30
46%
Strike defense
26%
1.65
TDs / 15 min
0.88
83%
Takedown defense
42%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.21Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap-4.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1464Strikes3.3 vs 1.3Takedowns1.6 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.40Form0.6 vs -1.0
Mansur Abdul-MalikAntonio Trocoli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14101445148015151550← oldermost recent →
Mansur Abdul-Malik(5 fights)Antonio Trocoli(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +89.3|Blue -89.3
Recent Form
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -217.0|Blue +217.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mansur Abdul-MalikTargetAntonio Trocoli

By target zone

2
50% acc · 100%
Head
2
50% acc · 67%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 33%

By position

1
33% acc · 50%
Distance
3
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mansur Abdul-Malik rounds
0
even
0
Antonio Trocoli rounds
Round 1Mansur Abdul-Malik edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control0:42
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 4
Sig Strikes
3 / 6
50%
Sig Str %
50%
2 / 4
Total Strikes
3 / 6
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:42
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Antonio Trocoli3 / 63 / 60 / 10
1Mansur Abdul-Malik2 / 42 / 41 / 11

Mansur Abdul-Malik

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights5

Antonio Trocoli

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4