Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Casey Kenney won · U-DEC R3

Elo1377

Elo1406

Manny BermudezvsCasey KenneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Saturday, August 17, 2019Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Casey Kenney won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupManny Bermudez: WrestlervsCasey Kenney: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Casey Kenney wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Casey Kenney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey Kenney at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Casey Kenney has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Casey Kenney has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Manny Bermudez

Red Corner

Casey Kenney

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1377

Elo

1406

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manny Bermudez

oldest →

SUBvs Albert Morales · Feb 18

SUBvs Davey Grant · Jul 18

SUBvs Benito Lopez · Feb 19

SUBvs Charles Rosa · Oct 19

latest

Casey KenneyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20

vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20

vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21

vs Song Yadong · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manny BermudezMetricCasey Kenney

2.92

Strikes / min

4.85

2.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

46%

Strike defense

58%

3.06

TDs / 15 min

1.09

Takedown defense

61%

3.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.24evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manny BermudezCasey Kenney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manny Bermudez(5 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.9|Blue +28.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +41.0|Blue -41.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manny BermudezTargetCasey Kenney

By target zone

62% acc · 78%

Head

50% acc · 49%

67% acc · 22%

Body

71% acc · 23%

Leg

92% acc · 28%

By position

51% acc · 59%

Distance

53% acc · 60%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

86% acc · 14%

93% acc · 35%

Ground

85% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manny Bermudez rounds

even

Casey Kenney rounds

Round 1Casey Kenney edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:32

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Casey Kenney edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:22

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:55Control

Round 3Manny Bermudez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control3:16

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 59

Sig Strikes

43 / 69

62.7%

Sig Str %

61.3%

59 / 83

Total Strikes

56 / 85

3 / 4

TDs

2 / 2

83%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:10

Ctrl Time

5:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Casey Kenney	18 / 28	21 / 31	1 / 1	0
1	Manny Bermudez	11 / 14	14 / 17	1 / 1	0
2	Casey Kenney	14 / 22	20 / 31	0 / 0	1
2	Manny Bermudez	6 / 12	7 / 13	2 / 3	0
3	Casey Kenney	11 / 19	15 / 23	1 / 1	0
3	Manny Bermudez	20 / 33	38 / 53	0 / 0	0

Manny Bermudez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Casey Kenney

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8