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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Manel Kape won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1558

Elo1462

Manel KapevsZhalgas ZhumagulovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Manel Kape won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:02

Style matchupManel Kape: Pressure fightervsZhalgas Zhumagulov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Manel Kape wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manel Kape at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhalgas Zhumagulov (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Manel Kape

Red Corner

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1558

Elo

1462

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manel KapeW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Zhalgas ZhumagulovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Amir Albazi · Jan 21

SUBvs Jerome Rivera · Jul 21

vs Jeff Molina · Jun 22

vs Charles Johnson · Nov 22

vs Joshua Van · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manel KapeMetricZhalgas Zhumagulov

5.04

Strikes / min

5.24

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

1.30

81%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manel KapeZhalgas Zhumagulov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manel Kape(10 fights)Zhalgas Zhumagulov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.8|Blue -95.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manel KapeTargetZhalgas Zhumagulov

By target zone

70% acc · 74%

Head

31% acc · 61%

71% acc · 9%

Body

55% acc · 19%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

86% acc · 19%

By position

74% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manel Kape rounds

even

Zhalgas Zhumagulov rounds

Round 1Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns2

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 72

Sig Strikes

31 / 79

73%

Sig Str %

39%

54 / 73

Total Strikes

31 / 79

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	31 / 79	31 / 79	0 / 0	0
1	Manel Kape	53 / 72	54 / 73	0 / 0	0

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights6