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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Manel Kape won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1558

Elo1479

Manel KapevsOde OsbourneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Manel Kape won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:44

Style matchupManel Kape: Pressure fightervsOde Osbourne: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ode Osbourne wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ode Osbourne at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Manel Kape has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ode Osbourne has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Manel Kape

Red Corner

Ode Osbourne

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1558

Elo

1479

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manel KapeW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Ode OsbourneL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Sep 24

KOvs Luis Gurule · Apr 25

vs Steve Erceg · Aug 25

vs Alibi Idiris · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manel KapeMetricOde Osbourne

5.04

Strikes / min

2.94

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

57%

Strike defense

49%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

0.94

81%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manel KapeOde Osbourne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manel Kape(10 fights)Ode Osbourne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.3|Blue -78.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manel KapeTargetOde Osbourne

By target zone

61% acc · 74%

Head

36% acc · 50%

67% acc · 11%

Body

75% acc · 33%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

60% acc · 17%

By position

64% acc · 84%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

Clinch

75% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manel Kape rounds

even

Ode Osbourne rounds

Round 1Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 29

Sig Strikes

18 / 38

65%

Sig Str %

47%

19 / 29

Total Strikes

18 / 38

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ode Osbourne	18 / 38	18 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Manel Kape	19 / 29	19 / 29	0 / 0	0

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Ode Osbourne

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11