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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Manel Kape won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1558

Elo1514

Manel KapevsKyoji HoriguchiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Manel Kape won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:42

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Manel Kape

Style matchupManel Kape: Pressure fightervsKyoji Horiguchi: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kyoji Horiguchi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Manel Kape is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Kyoji Horiguchi has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Manel Kape has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Manel Kape has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Manel Kape

Red Corner

Kyoji Horiguchi

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1558

Elo

1514

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manel KapeW3 streak

oldest →

vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 23

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

latest

Kyoji HoriguchiW5 streak

oldest →

vs Chico Camus · Sep 15

vs Neil Seery · May 16

vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25

vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manel KapeMetricKyoji Horiguchi

5.04

Strikes / min

3.77

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

57%

Strike defense

63%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

1.61

81%

Takedown defense

61%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+1.64

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manel Kape(10 fights)Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.3|Blue -43.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manel KapeTargetKyoji Horiguchi

By target zone

23% acc · 58%

Head

49% acc · 78%

67% acc · 11%

Body

80% acc · 15%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

40% acc · 7%

By position

28% acc · 68%

Distance

48% acc · 74%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 32%

Ground

70% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manel Kape rounds

even

Kyoji Horiguchi rounds

Round 1Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:45Control

Round 3Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 56

Sig Strikes

27 / 53

34.3%

Sig Str %

53.3%

47 / 88

Total Strikes

53 / 89

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

4:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyoji Horiguchi	8 / 15	9 / 17	1 / 3
1	Manel Kape	5 / 19	8 / 22	0 / 0
2	Kyoji Horiguchi	11 / 15	36 / 49	1 / 1
2	Manel Kape	2 / 5	26 / 31	0 / 0
3	Kyoji Horiguchi	8 / 23	8 / 23	0 / 1
3	Manel Kape	12 / 32	13 / 35	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 53% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Kyoji Horiguchi

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11