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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Manel Kape won · U-DEC R3

Elo1558

Elo1485

Manel KapevsFelipe dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Manel Kape won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Manel Kape wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manel Kape at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Manel Kape has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Manel Kape has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Manel Kape

Red Corner

Felipe dos Santos

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1558

Elo

1485

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manel KapeW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Felipe dos SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Feb 24

vs Andre Lima · Sep 24

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manel KapeMetricFelipe dos Santos

5.04

Strikes / min

3.75

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

57%

Strike defense

41%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

0.00

81%

Takedown defense

20%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manel KapeFelipe dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manel Kape(10 fights)Felipe dos Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +73.0|Blue -73.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manel KapeTargetFelipe dos Santos

By target zone

56% acc · 69%

Head

25% acc · 54%

80% acc · 21%

Body

47% acc · 28%

73% acc · 10%

Leg

62% acc · 18%

By position

62% acc · 82%

Distance

32% acc · 95%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

58% acc · 13%

Ground

25% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manel Kape rounds

even

Felipe dos Santos rounds

Round 1Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:28

Knockdowns1

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:17

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

112 / 182

Sig Strikes

99 / 304

61.3%

Sig Str %

32.3%

116 / 186

Total Strikes

101 / 310

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 5

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe dos Santos	32 / 96	32 / 96	0 / 3
1	Manel Kape	36 / 55	38 / 57	0 / 0
2	Felipe dos Santos	35 / 102	35 / 103	0 / 1
2	Manel Kape	37 / 61	37 / 61	0 / 0
3	Felipe dos Santos	32 / 106	34 / 111	0 / 1
3	Manel Kape	39 / 66	41 / 68	1 / 1

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Felipe dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4