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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Manel Kape won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1558

Elo1453

Manel KapevsBruno SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Manel Kape won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:57

Style matchupManel Kape: Pressure fightervsBruno Silva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Manel Kape wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manel Kape at -395 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Manel Kape has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).
Bruno Silva has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Manel Kape

Red Corner

Bruno Silva

Blue Corner

-395

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1558

Elo

1453

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

6'0"

172.72 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manel KapeW3 streak

oldest →

vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 23

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Bruno SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Jun 25

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Oct 25

vs Charles Johnson · Mar 26

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manel KapeMetricBruno Silva

5.04

Strikes / min

3.86

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

57%

Strike defense

41%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

0.77

81%

Takedown defense

74%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manel KapeBruno Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manel Kape(10 fights)Bruno Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +104.5|Blue -104.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manel KapeTargetBruno Silva

By target zone

56% acc · 64%

Head

36% acc · 47%

95% acc · 16%

Body

72% acc · 37%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

109

66% acc · 98%

Distance

50% acc · 96%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manel Kape rounds

even

Bruno Silva rounds

Round 1Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

111 / 168

Sig Strikes

57 / 112

66.3%

Sig Str %

49.3%

111 / 168

Total Strikes

60 / 115

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Silva	19 / 34	21 / 36	0 / 2
1	Manel Kape	32 / 48	32 / 48	0 / 0
2	Bruno Silva	27 / 43	28 / 44	0 / 3
2	Manel Kape	39 / 66	39 / 66	0 / 0
3	Bruno Silva	11 / 35	11 / 35	0 / 0
3	Manel Kape	40 / 54	40 / 54	0 / 0

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Bruno Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights23