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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Manel Kape won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1558

Elo1557

Manel KapevsAsu AlmabayevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Manel Kape won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:16

Style matchupManel Kape: Pressure fightervsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Asu Almabayev at +184 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manel Kape enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Asu Almabayev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Manel Kape has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Manel Kape

Red Corner

Asu Almabayev

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+184

(35%)

1558

Elo

1557

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manel KapeW3 streak

oldest →

vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 23

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24

KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26

latest

Asu AlmabayevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24

vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24

vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25

SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25

SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manel KapeMetricAsu Almabayev

5.04

Strikes / min

2.31

4.08

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

57%

Strike defense

53%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

4.46

81%

Takedown defense

44%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Manel KapeAsu Almabayev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Manel Kape(10 fights)Asu Almabayev(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manel KapeTargetAsu Almabayev

By target zone

49% acc · 77%

Head

35% acc · 48%

65% acc · 18%

Body

76% acc · 33%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

49% acc · 75%

Distance

49% acc · 95%

60% acc · 15%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Manel Kape rounds

even

Asu Almabayev rounds

Round 1Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Manel Kape edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:29

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 115

Sig Strikes

40 / 80

52%

Sig Str %

53.7%

62 / 119

Total Strikes

40 / 81

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 6

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Asu Almabayev	14 / 28	14 / 28	0 / 1
1	Manel Kape	19 / 40	20 / 43	0 / 0
2	Asu Almabayev	18 / 40	18 / 40	0 / 1
2	Manel Kape	14 / 27	14 / 28	0 / 1
3	Asu Almabayev	8 / 12	8 / 13	0 / 4
3	Manel Kape	28 / 48	28 / 48	0 / 0

Manel Kape

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11

Asu Almabayev

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8