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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jai Herbert won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1477
Elo1512
Jai Herbert

Mandel NallovsJai HerbertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Saturday, April 18, 2026Winnipeg, Canada

Official fight result

Jai Herbert won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:05

Style matchupMandel Nallo: Pressure fightervsJai Herbert: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Mandel Nallo wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Jai Herbert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mandel Nallo has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mandel Nallo
Red Corner
VS
Jai Herbert
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1477
Elo
1512
37
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mandel NalloNo prior UFC fights on record.
Jai Herbert
oldest →
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22
W
vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22
L
vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23
W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24
L
vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mandel NalloMetricJai Herbert
8.26
Strikes / min
3.19
5.03
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
54%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.42
100%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.23Δ 3.38 — meaningful gap-0.15
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Mandel Nallo(1 fights)Jai Herbert(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -35.1|Blue +35.1
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Grappler Score
Red +49.9|Blue -49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Mandel Nallo

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights0

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights8