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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ronnie Lawrence won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Mana MartinezvsRonnie LawrenceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Ronnie Lawrence won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMana Martinez: Pressure fightervsRonnie Lawrence: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ronnie Lawrence wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Ronnie Lawrence wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronnie Lawrence at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ronnie Lawrence has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ronnie Lawrence (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Mana Martinez

Red Corner

Ronnie Lawrence

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1496

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mana Martinez

oldest →

vs Guido Cannetti · Aug 21

vs Brandon Davis · Oct 22

vs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 23

latest

Ronnie Lawrence

oldest →

KOvs Vince Cachero · Feb 21

vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mana MartinezMetricRonnie Lawrence

4.33

Strikes / min

2.78

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

50%

Strike defense

52%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

6.75

25%

Takedown defense

45%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mana MartinezRonnie Lawrence

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mana Martinez(4 fights)Ronnie Lawrence(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mana MartinezTargetRonnie Lawrence

By target zone

41% acc · 62%

Head

51% acc · 65%

73% acc · 21%

Body

50% acc · 13%

88% acc · 18%

Leg

91% acc · 22%

By position

49% acc · 82%

Distance

57% acc · 61%

0% acc

Clinch

64% acc · 18%

Ground

55% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mana Martinez rounds

even

Ronnie Lawrence rounds

Round 1Ronnie Lawrence edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:52Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Ronnie Lawrence edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:55Control

2Knockdowns

Round 3Mana Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns2

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:22Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 78

Sig Strikes

46 / 82

42.3%

Sig Str %

55%

105 / 156

Total Strikes

63 / 99

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 7

—

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

8:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ronnie Lawrence	20 / 33	30 / 43	1 / 1	0
1	Mana Martinez	6 / 14	37 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Ronnie Lawrence	14 / 27	20 / 33	3 / 3	0
2	Mana Martinez	3 / 10	17 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Ronnie Lawrence	12 / 22	13 / 23	2 / 3	0
3	Mana Martinez	30 / 54	51 / 81	0 / 0	1

Mana Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Ronnie Lawrence

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3