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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mana Martinez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1438

Mana MartinezvsBrandon DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Saturday, October 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mana Martinez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMana Martinez: Pressure fightervsBrandon Davis: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Mana Martinez wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Mana Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mana Martinez at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Davis enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brandon Davis has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mana Martinez

Red Corner

Brandon Davis

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1496

Elo

1438

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mana MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Guido Cannetti · Aug 21

vs Ronnie Lawrence · Feb 22

vs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 23

latest

Brandon DavisL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Sep 18

SUBvs Randy Costa · Apr 19

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Aug 19

vs Giga Chikadze · Sep 19

KOvs Batgerel Danaa · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mana MartinezMetricBrandon Davis

4.33

Strikes / min

4.68

4.94

Strikes absorbed / min

4.62

50%

Strike defense

58%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

0.74

25%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mana MartinezBrandon Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mana Martinez(4 fights)Brandon Davis(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.7|Blue -58.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mana MartinezTargetBrandon Davis

By target zone

42% acc · 52%

Head

31% acc · 57%

74% acc · 29%

Body

67% acc · 21%

89% acc · 20%

Leg

94% acc · 22%

By position

53% acc · 94%

Distance

41% acc · 91%

60% acc · 3%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

57% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mana Martinez rounds

even

Brandon Davis rounds

Round 1Mana Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:03

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Mana Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns2

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Brandon Davis edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:39

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 161

Sig Strikes

76 / 181

52.7%

Sig Str %

42.3%

87 / 162

Total Strikes

84 / 189

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 3

25%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brandon Davis	24 / 57	24 / 57	0 / 1
1	Mana Martinez	31 / 55	31 / 55	0 / 0
2	Brandon Davis	29 / 55	29 / 55	0 / 1
2	Mana Martinez	37 / 62	37 / 62	0 / 0
3	Brandon Davis	23 / 69	31 / 77	1 / 1
3	Mana Martinez	19 / 44	19 / 45	1 / 4

Mana Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Brandon Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9