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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Malcolm Wellmaker won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1489

Elo1453

Malcolm WellmakervsKris MoutinhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Saturday, June 14, 2025Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Malcolm Wellmaker won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:37

Style matchupMalcolm Wellmaker: Pressure fightervsKris Moutinho: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Malcolm Wellmaker wins(83.8%)

Actual result: Malcolm Wellmaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Malcolm Wellmaker at -1800 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kris Moutinho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Malcolm Wellmaker is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Kris Moutinho has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Malcolm Wellmaker has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Malcolm Wellmaker has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Malcolm Wellmaker (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Malcolm Wellmaker

Red Corner

Kris Moutinho

Blue Corner

-1800

(95%)

Vegas Odds

+980

(9%)

1489

Elo

1453

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Malcolm WellmakerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Apr 25

vs Ethyn Ewing · Nov 25

SUBvs Juan Diaz · May 26

latest

Kris MoutinhoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jul 21

KOvs Guido Cannetti · Mar 22

vs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Malcolm WellmakerMetricKris Moutinho

5.80

Strikes / min

3.35

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

9.36

52%

Strike defense

30%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

57%

Takedown defense

30%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 6.42 — meaningful gap-6.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Malcolm WellmakerKris Moutinho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Malcolm Wellmaker(4 fights)Kris Moutinho(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.7|Blue -36.7

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -1141.0|Blue +1141.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Malcolm WellmakerTargetKris Moutinho

By target zone

48% acc · 44%

Head

13% acc · 50%

90% acc · 36%

Body

50% acc · 17%

83% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

61% acc · 88%

Distance

23% acc · 100%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Malcolm Wellmaker rounds

even

Kris Moutinho rounds

Round 1Malcolm Wellmaker edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 39

Sig Strikes

6 / 27

64%

Sig Str %

22%

25 / 39

Total Strikes

7 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kris Moutinho	6 / 27	7 / 28	0 / 1	0
1	Malcolm Wellmaker	25 / 39	25 / 39	0 / 0	0

Malcolm Wellmaker

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Kris Moutinho

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4