Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Juan Diaz won · Submission R2
Elo1489
Malcolm Wellmaker
Elo1525

Malcolm WellmakervsJuan DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Juan Diaz won

Submission · Round 2 · 4:08

Style matchupMalcolm Wellmaker: Pressure fightervsJuan Diaz: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Malcolm Wellmaker wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Juan Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Juan Diaz threatens submissions; Malcolm Wellmaker has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Malcolm Wellmaker has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Malcolm Wellmaker
Red Corner
VS
Juan Diaz
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1489
Elo
1525
32
Age
28
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Malcolm Wellmaker
oldest →
W
KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Apr 25
W
KOvs Kris Moutinho · Jun 25
L
vs Ethyn Ewing · Nov 25
latest
Juan DiazNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Malcolm WellmakerMetricJuan Diaz
5.80
Strikes / min
5.82
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
5.02
52%
Strike defense
60%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.01
57%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Malcolm Wellmaker(4 fights)Juan Diaz(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -35.5|Blue +35.5
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Malcolm Wellmaker

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3

Juan Diaz

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights0