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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ethyn Ewing won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1542

Malcolm WellmakervsEthyn EwingUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ethyn Ewing won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMalcolm Wellmaker: Pressure fightervsEthyn Ewing: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Ethyn Ewing wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Ethyn Ewing wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ethyn Ewing at +330 American odds

+$330 profit

$430 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ethyn Ewing has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ethyn Ewing has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Malcolm Wellmaker (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Malcolm Wellmaker

Red Corner

Ethyn Ewing

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1489

Elo

1542

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Malcolm Wellmaker

oldest →

KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Apr 25

KOvs Kris Moutinho · Jun 25

SUBvs Juan Diaz · May 26

latest

Ethyn Ewing

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Estevam · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Malcolm WellmakerMetricEthyn Ewing

5.80

Strikes / min

7.44

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

52%

Strike defense

63%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.68

57%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap+2.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Malcolm WellmakerEthyn Ewing

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Malcolm Wellmaker(4 fights)Ethyn Ewing(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.6|Blue +52.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Malcolm WellmakerTargetEthyn Ewing

By target zone

40% acc · 45%

Head

48% acc · 82%

78% acc · 45%

Body

91% acc · 12%

50% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

46% acc · 69%

Distance

49% acc · 79%

80% acc · 31%

Clinch

72% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Malcolm Wellmaker rounds

even

Ethyn Ewing rounds

Round 1Malcolm Wellmaker edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:20

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Ethyn Ewing edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:14

41Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Ethyn Ewing edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:37

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 146

Sig Strikes

85 / 163

56.7%

Sig Str %

49.3%

82 / 151

Total Strikes

99 / 179

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

77.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ethyn Ewing	12 / 29	18 / 36	1 / 1
1	Malcolm Wellmaker	21 / 27	24 / 30	0 / 2
2	Ethyn Ewing	41 / 72	42 / 73	1 / 3
2	Malcolm Wellmaker	34 / 68	34 / 68	0 / 0
3	Ethyn Ewing	32 / 62	39 / 70	1 / 1
3	Malcolm Wellmaker	22 / 51	24 / 53	0 / 1

Malcolm Wellmaker

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Ethyn Ewing

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4