Featherweight

3 Rounds

Lerone Murphy won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1453

Elo1534

Makwan AmirkhanivsLerone MurphyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Saturday, October 30, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Lerone Murphy won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:14

Style matchupMakwan Amirkhani: WrestlervsLerone Murphy: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Lerone Murphy wins(77.0%)

Actual result: Lerone Murphy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lerone Murphy at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lerone Murphy has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Makwan Amirkhani

Red Corner

Lerone Murphy

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1453

Elo

1534

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Makwan AmirkhaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Oct 20

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Lerone Murphy

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · May 24

vs Dan Ige · Oct 24

vs Josh Emmett · Apr 25

KOvs Aaron Pico · Aug 25

vs Movsar Evloev · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Makwan AmirkhaniMetricLerone Murphy

1.33

Strikes / min

4.34

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

46%

Strike defense

60%

3.96

TDs / 15 min

1.20

35%

Takedown defense

44%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.65Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap+1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Makwan AmirkhaniLerone Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)Lerone Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -80.4|Blue +80.4

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -136.0|Blue +136.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Makwan AmirkhaniTargetLerone Murphy

By target zone

60% acc · 75%

Head

80% acc · 100%

100% acc · 25%

Body

Leg

By position

50% acc · 25%

Distance

50% acc · 25%

Clinch

75% acc · 75%

Ground

100% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

even

Lerone Murphy rounds

Round 1Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns5

Control4:05

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Lerone Murphy edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 6

Sig Strikes

4 / 5

62.5%

Sig Str %

80%

12 / 16

Total Strikes

7 / 8

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

41.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:05

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lerone Murphy	0 / 0	3 / 3	0 / 0
1	Makwan Amirkhani	3 / 4	11 / 14	5 / 6
2	Lerone Murphy	4 / 5	4 / 5	0 / 0
2	Makwan Amirkhani	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 1

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Lerone Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10