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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kamuela Kirk won · U-DEC R3

Elo1453

Elo1467

Makwan AmirkhanivsKamuela KirkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Saturday, June 5, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kamuela Kirk won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMakwan Amirkhani: WrestlervsKamuela Kirk: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Kamuela Kirk wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Kamuela Kirk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamuela Kirk at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Makwan Amirkhani threatens submissions; Kamuela Kirk has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamuela Kirk (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Makwan Amirkhani

Red Corner

Kamuela Kirk

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1453

Elo

1467

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Makwan AmirkhaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Oct 20

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Kamuela KirkL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Mar 22

vs Esteban Ribovics · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Makwan AmirkhaniMetricKamuela Kirk

1.33

Strikes / min

3.22

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

5.87

46%

Strike defense

40%

3.96

TDs / 15 min

1.50

35%

Takedown defense

47%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.65evenly matched on net striking-2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Makwan AmirkhaniKamuela Kirk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)Kamuela Kirk(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.4|Blue +13.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Makwan AmirkhaniTargetKamuela Kirk

By target zone

35% acc · 70%

Head

24% acc · 29%

57% acc · 20%

Body

60% acc · 32%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

79% acc · 39%

By position

36% acc · 75%

Distance

44% acc · 96%

Clinch

71% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

even

Kamuela Kirk rounds

Round 1Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:44

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:51

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:15

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 49

Sig Strikes

28 / 63

42.7%

Sig Str %

41.7%

25 / 56

Total Strikes

100 / 143

5 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

68.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:50

Ctrl Time

1:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kamuela Kirk	11 / 23	19 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Makwan Amirkhani	6 / 16	6 / 16	2 / 5	0
2	Kamuela Kirk	13 / 27	46 / 66	0 / 0	3
2	Makwan Amirkhani	6 / 20	8 / 24	1 / 1	0
3	Kamuela Kirk	4 / 13	35 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Makwan Amirkhani	8 / 13	11 / 16	2 / 3	0

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Kamuela Kirk

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3