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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Pearce won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1453

Elo1494

Makwan AmirkhanivsJonathan PearceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jonathan Pearce won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:10

Style matchupMakwan Amirkhani: WrestlervsJonathan Pearce: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Pearce wins(77.5%)

Actual result: Jonathan Pearce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Pearce at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jonathan Pearce enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Makwan Amirkhani threatens submissions; Jonathan Pearce has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Jonathan Pearce has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Pearce (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Makwan Amirkhani

Red Corner

Jonathan Pearce

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1453

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Makwan Amirkhani

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Oct 20

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Jonathan PearceL3 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Feb 22

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 22

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Nov 23

vs David Onama · Apr 24

SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Makwan AmirkhaniMetricJonathan Pearce

1.33

Strikes / min

5.12

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

46%

Strike defense

54%

3.96

TDs / 15 min

5.02

35%

Takedown defense

55%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.65Δ 3.45 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Makwan AmirkhaniJonathan Pearce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)Jonathan Pearce(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.4|Blue +40.4

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Makwan AmirkhaniTargetJonathan Pearce

By target zone

47% acc · 82%

Head

80% acc · 83%

0% acc

Body

79% acc · 12%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 41%

Ground

79% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

even

Jonathan Pearce rounds

Round 1Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns3

Control1:25

46Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

44Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 22

Sig Strikes

90 / 112

49.5%

Sig Str %

81%

12 / 23

Total Strikes

144 / 178

3 / 7

TDs

4 / 5

42%

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

4:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jonathan Pearce	46 / 51	61 / 67	2 / 3
1	Makwan Amirkhani	6 / 11	7 / 12	3 / 7
2	Jonathan Pearce	44 / 61	83 / 111	2 / 2
2	Makwan Amirkhani	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 0

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Jonathan Pearce

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9