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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Makwan Amirkhani won · SUB R1

Elo1453

Elo1386

Makwan AmirkhanivsDanny HenryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Makwan Amirkhani won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:15

Style matchupMakwan Amirkhani: WrestlervsDanny Henry: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Makwan Amirkhani wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makwan Amirkhani at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Makwan Amirkhani threatens submissions; Danny Henry has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Danny Henry has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Makwan Amirkhani

Red Corner

Danny Henry

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1453

Elo

1386

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Makwan AmirkhaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Danny Henry

oldest →

vs Daniel Teymur · Jul 17

SUBvs Hakeem Dawodu · Mar 18

SUBvs Dan Ige · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Makwan AmirkhaniMetricDanny Henry

1.33

Strikes / min

5.20

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

4.16

46%

Strike defense

45%

3.96

TDs / 15 min

0.74

35%

Takedown defense

50%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.65Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Makwan AmirkhaniDanny Henry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)Danny Henry(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.3|Blue -67.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -231.0|Blue +231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Makwan AmirkhaniTargetDanny Henry

By target zone

20% acc · 50%

Head

17% acc · 17%

100% acc · 50%

Body

43% acc · 50%

Leg

67% acc · 33%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

even

Danny Henry rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:47

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 6

Sig Strikes

6 / 16

33%

Sig Str %

37%

2 / 6

Total Strikes

6 / 16

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Henry	6 / 16	6 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Makwan Amirkhani	2 / 6	2 / 6	1 / 1	1

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Danny Henry

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4