Middleweight

3 Rounds

Julian Marquez won · SUB

Elo1412

Elo1481

Maki PitolovsJulian MarquezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Saturday, February 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Marquez won

SUB

Style matchupMaki Pitolo: WrestlervsJulian Marquez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Julian Marquez wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Julian Marquez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Marquez at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maki Pitolo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Julian Marquez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Maki Pitolo is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Julian Marquez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Julian Marquez threatens submissions; Maki Pitolo has lost 40% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Maki Pitolo

Red Corner

Julian Marquez

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-177

(64%)

1412

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maki PitoloL3 streak

oldest →

vs Callan Potter · Oct 19

KOvs Charles Byrd · Jun 20

SUBvs Darren Stewart · Aug 20

vs Impa Kasanganay · Aug 20

KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Dec 21

latest

Julian MarquezL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sam Alvey · Apr 21

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 22

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 23

KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24

KOvs Cody Brundage · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maki PitoloMetricJulian Marquez

4.10

Strikes / min

5.06

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

55%

Strike defense

50%

2.24

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

54%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maki PitoloJulian Marquez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maki Pitolo(6 fights)Julian Marquez(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -69.1|Blue +69.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -785.0|Blue +785.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maki PitoloTargetJulian Marquez

By target zone

35% acc · 50%

Head

39% acc · 90%

86% acc · 38%

Body

75% acc · 7%

80% acc · 13%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

42% acc · 69%

Distance

25% acc · 44%

88% acc · 22%

Clinch

94% acc · 37%

60% acc · 9%

Ground

67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maki Pitolo rounds

even

Julian Marquez rounds

Round 1Maki Pitolo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:24

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Maki Pitolo edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns3

Control3:02

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 3Julian Marquez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:41

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 65

Sig Strikes

41 / 100

50.3%

Sig Str %

42.3%

70 / 110

Total Strikes

61 / 129

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:07

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Marquez	4 / 8	8 / 13	0 / 1	1
1	Maki Pitolo	10 / 16	18 / 29	1 / 3	0
2	Julian Marquez	11 / 40	17 / 49	0 / 0	2
2	Maki Pitolo	11 / 23	41 / 54	3 / 4	0
3	Julian Marquez	26 / 52	36 / 67	0 / 0	1
3	Maki Pitolo	11 / 26	11 / 27	1 / 4	1

Maki Pitolo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Julian Marquez

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8