Middleweight

3 Rounds

Impa Kasanganay won · U-DEC R3

Elo1412

Elo1494

Maki PitolovsImpa KasanganayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Saturday, August 29, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Impa Kasanganay won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMaki Pitolo: WrestlervsImpa Kasanganay: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Impa Kasanganay wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Impa Kasanganay wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Impa Kasanganay at -139 American odds

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maki Pitolo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Maki Pitolo is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Impa Kasanganay has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Impa Kasanganay threatens submissions; Maki Pitolo has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Impa Kasanganay has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Maki Pitolo

Red Corner

Impa Kasanganay

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-139

(58%)

1412

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maki PitoloL3 streak

oldest →

vs Callan Potter · Oct 19

KOvs Charles Byrd · Jun 20

SUBvs Darren Stewart · Aug 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Feb 21

KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Dec 21

latest

Impa Kasanganay

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 20

SUBvs Sasha Palatnikov · Apr 21

KOvs Carlston Harris · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maki PitoloMetricImpa Kasanganay

4.10

Strikes / min

4.96

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

55%

Strike defense

58%

2.24

TDs / 15 min

1.75

50%

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maki PitoloImpa Kasanganay

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maki Pitolo(6 fights)Impa Kasanganay(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -81.6|Blue +81.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maki PitoloTargetImpa Kasanganay

By target zone

38% acc · 76%

Head

41% acc · 80%

48% acc · 18%

Body

41% acc · 14%

80% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 96%

0% acc

Clinch

38% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maki Pitolo rounds

even

Impa Kasanganay rounds

Round 1Maki Pitolo edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Impa Kasanganay edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:16

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Impa Kasanganay edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 173

Sig Strikes

85 / 198

40%

Sig Str %

42.3%

72 / 174

Total Strikes

86 / 199

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Impa Kasanganay	28 / 69	29 / 70	0 / 0
1	Maki Pitolo	31 / 66	31 / 66	0 / 0
2	Impa Kasanganay	30 / 70	30 / 70	0 / 1
2	Maki Pitolo	19 / 50	20 / 51	0 / 0
3	Impa Kasanganay	27 / 59	27 / 59	0 / 0
3	Maki Pitolo	21 / 57	21 / 57	0 / 0

Maki Pitolo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Impa Kasanganay

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4