Middleweight

3 Rounds

Darren Stewart won · Submission R1

Elo1412

Elo1407

Maki PitolovsDarren StewartUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Saturday, August 8, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darren Stewart won

Submission · Round 1 · 3:41

Style matchupMaki Pitolo: WrestlervsDarren Stewart: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Maki Pitolo wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Darren Stewart wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maki Pitolo at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maki Pitolo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Darren Stewart enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Darren Stewart has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Maki Pitolo

Red Corner

Darren Stewart

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1412

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maki PitoloL3 streak

oldest →

vs Callan Potter · Oct 19

KOvs Charles Byrd · Jun 20

vs Impa Kasanganay · Aug 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Feb 21

KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Dec 21

latest

Darren StewartL3 streak

oldest →

vs Bevon Lewis · Jun 19

vs Deron Winn · Oct 19

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 20

vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maki PitoloMetricDarren Stewart

4.10

Strikes / min

3.05

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

55%

Strike defense

48%

2.24

TDs / 15 min

1.75

50%

Takedown defense

67%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maki PitoloDarren Stewart

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maki Pitolo(6 fights)Darren Stewart(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.6|Blue -5.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -232.0|Blue +232.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maki PitoloTargetDarren Stewart

By target zone

32% acc · 58%

Head

28% acc · 69%

50% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 15%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maki Pitolo rounds

even

Darren Stewart rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:17

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 31

Sig Strikes

13 / 38

38%

Sig Str %

34%

14 / 33

Total Strikes

14 / 39

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Stewart	13 / 38	14 / 39	0 / 1	1
1	Maki Pitolo	12 / 31	14 / 33	1 / 1	0

Maki Pitolo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12