Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Makhmud Muradov won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1499

Elo1379

Makhmud MuradovvsTrevor SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, December 7, 2019Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Makhmud Muradov won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:09

Style matchupMakhmud Muradov: WrestlervsTrevor Smith: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Trevor Smith wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Makhmud Muradov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Smith at +400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Makhmud Muradov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Makhmud Muradov has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Makhmud Muradov

Red Corner

Trevor Smith

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1499

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Makhmud Muradov

oldest →

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Sep 19

KOvs Andrew Sanchez · Jan 21

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 21

vs Caio Borralho · Oct 22

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 23

latest

Trevor SmithL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joe Gigliotti · Aug 16

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Makhmud MuradovMetricTrevor Smith

4.21

Strikes / min

3.29

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

61%

Strike defense

51%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

1.70

77%

Takedown defense

60%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.64Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Makhmud MuradovTrevor Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Makhmud Muradov(6 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.2|Blue -120.2

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -287.0|Blue +287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Makhmud MuradovTargetTrevor Smith

By target zone

41% acc · 65%

Head

28% acc · 51%

80% acc · 35%

Body

63% acc · 13%

Leg

82% acc · 36%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 97%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Makhmud Muradov rounds

even

Trevor Smith rounds

Round 1Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control0:05

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 183

Sig Strikes

39 / 96

49.7%

Sig Str %

39.7%

91 / 183

Total Strikes

39 / 96

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevor Smith	9 / 24	9 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Makhmud Muradov	24 / 57	24 / 57	0 / 0	0
2	Trevor Smith	17 / 39	17 / 39	0 / 1	0
2	Makhmud Muradov	35 / 71	35 / 71	1 / 1	1
3	Trevor Smith	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Makhmud Muradov	32 / 55	32 / 55	0 / 0	0

Makhmud Muradov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12