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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R2

Elo1499

Elo1457

Makhmud MuradovvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Saturday, August 28, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:49

Style matchupMakhmud Muradov: WrestlervsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Makhmud Muradov wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makhmud Muradov at -575 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Makhmud Muradov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Makhmud Muradov has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Makhmud Muradov

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-575

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+410

(20%)

1499

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Makhmud Muradov

oldest →

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Sep 19

KOvs Trevor Smith · Dec 19

KOvs Andrew Sanchez · Jan 21

vs Caio Borralho · Oct 22

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 23

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Makhmud MuradovMetricGerald Meerschaert

4.21

Strikes / min

2.95

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

61%

Strike defense

53%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

1.70

77%

Takedown defense

40%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.64Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Makhmud MuradovGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Makhmud Muradov(6 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.1|Blue -42.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Makhmud MuradovTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

33% acc · 68%

Head

51% acc · 72%

62% acc · 20%

Body

60% acc · 9%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

39% acc · 90%

Distance

58% acc · 100%

57% acc · 10%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Makhmud Muradov rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:16

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:30Control

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 99

Sig Strikes

32 / 56

38.5%

Sig Str %

54.5%

41 / 100

Total Strikes

39 / 65

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 10

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	23 / 37	30 / 46	1 / 6	0
1	Makhmud Muradov	29 / 68	30 / 69	0 / 0	0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	9 / 19	9 / 19	2 / 4	1
2	Makhmud Muradov	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 0	0

Makhmud Muradov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25