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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Caio Borralho won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1533

Makhmud MuradovvsCaio BorralhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Caio Borralho won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMakhmud Muradov: WrestlervsCaio Borralho: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Borralho at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Caio Borralho (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Makhmud Muradov

Red Corner

Caio Borralho

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1499

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Makhmud Muradov

oldest →

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Sep 19

KOvs Trevor Smith · Dec 19

KOvs Andrew Sanchez · Jan 21

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 23

latest

Caio Borralho

oldest →

vs Abus Magomedov · Nov 23

KOvs Paul Craig · May 24

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25

vs Reinier de Ridder · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Makhmud MuradovMetricCaio Borralho

4.21

Strikes / min

3.47

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

61%

Strike defense

60%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

1.25

77%

Takedown defense

76%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.64evenly matched on net striking+0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Makhmud MuradovCaio Borralho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Makhmud Muradov(6 fights)Caio Borralho(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.8|Blue +33.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +315.0|Blue -315.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Makhmud MuradovTargetCaio Borralho

By target zone

36% acc · 71%

Head

57% acc · 68%

50% acc · 21%

Body

25% acc · 5%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 26%

By position

35% acc · 50%

Distance

43% acc · 53%

Clinch

47% acc · 50%

Ground

100% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Makhmud Muradov rounds

even

Caio Borralho rounds

Round 1Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:32

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 2Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:45

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:27

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:10Control

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 35

Sig Strikes

19 / 32

38.3%

Sig Str %

50%

76 / 103

Total Strikes

57 / 77

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:44

Ctrl Time

5:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Caio Borralho	13 / 18	17 / 22	1 / 1	0
1	Makhmud Muradov	7 / 20	25 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Caio Borralho	1 / 3	12 / 14	0 / 0	1
2	Makhmud Muradov	1 / 5	29 / 34	1 / 1	0
3	Caio Borralho	5 / 11	28 / 41	0 / 1	1
3	Makhmud Muradov	6 / 10	22 / 27	1 / 1	0

Makhmud Muradov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Caio Borralho

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9