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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Makhmud Muradov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1491

Makhmud MuradovvsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Makhmud Muradov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMakhmud Muradov: WrestlervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Makhmud Muradov wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Makhmud Muradov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makhmud Muradov at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Makhmud Muradov has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Makhmud Muradov has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Makhmud Muradov

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1499

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Makhmud MuradovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Sep 19

KOvs Trevor Smith · Dec 19

KOvs Andrew Sanchez · Jan 21

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 21

vs Caio Borralho · Oct 22

latest

Bryan BarberenaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Matt Brown · Mar 22

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Makhmud MuradovMetricBryan Barberena

4.21

Strikes / min

5.35

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

61%

Strike defense

44%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

0.13

77%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.64evenly matched on net striking+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Makhmud MuradovBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Makhmud Muradov(6 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.3|Blue -7.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Makhmud MuradovTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

51% acc · 72%

Head

23% acc · 46%

75% acc · 28%

Body

50% acc · 7%

Leg

62% acc · 46%

By position

58% acc · 85%

Distance

34% acc · 96%

45% acc · 9%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

43% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Makhmud Muradov rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control2:34

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns6

Control1:53

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns4

Control0:43

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 97

Sig Strikes

28 / 81

52.7%

Sig Str %

33.3%

68 / 114

Total Strikes

81 / 138

13 / 16

TDs

0 / 1

80.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:10

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bryan Barberena	6 / 22	28 / 46	0 / 0
1	Makhmud Muradov	9 / 22	16 / 30	3 / 4
2	Bryan Barberena	8 / 22	30 / 45	0 / 0
2	Makhmud Muradov	16 / 28	21 / 34	6 / 6
3	Bryan Barberena	14 / 37	23 / 47	0 / 1
3	Makhmud Muradov	29 / 47	31 / 50	4 / 6

Makhmud Muradov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19