← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1489

Mairbek TaisumovvsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMairbek Taisumov: Well-roundedvsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Diego Ferreira wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Ferreira at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mairbek Taisumov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Mairbek Taisumov is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Diego Ferreira has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Mairbek Taisumov has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mairbek Taisumov

Red Corner

Diego Ferreira

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1492

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mairbek TaisumovW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Christodoulou · Jan 15

KOvs Alan Patrick · Jun 15

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Apr 16

KOvs Felipe Silva · Sep 17

vs Desmond Green · Sep 18

latest

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mairbek TaisumovMetricDiego Ferreira

2.98

Strikes / min

4.70

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

64%

Strike defense

55%

1.34

TDs / 15 min

0.82

88%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.05Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mairbek TaisumovDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mairbek Taisumov(9 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mairbek TaisumovTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

29% acc · 78%

Head

28% acc · 71%

38% acc · 10%

Body

54% acc · 23%

75% acc · 12%

Leg

78% acc · 6%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

107

33% acc · 98%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mairbek Taisumov rounds

even

Diego Ferreira rounds

Round 1Mairbek Taisumov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:01

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

64Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 160

Sig Strikes

109 / 326

31.7%

Sig Str %

30%

51 / 160

Total Strikes

112 / 329

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Diego Ferreira	12 / 73	12 / 73	0 / 0
1	Mairbek Taisumov	19 / 53	19 / 53	0 / 0
2	Diego Ferreira	33 / 108	36 / 111	0 / 1
2	Mairbek Taisumov	18 / 49	18 / 49	0 / 2
3	Diego Ferreira	64 / 145	64 / 145	0 / 1
3	Mairbek Taisumov	14 / 58	14 / 58	0 / 0

Mairbek Taisumov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17