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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mairbek Taisumov won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1492
Mairbek Taisumov
Elo1425
Alan Patrick

Mairbek TaisumovvsAlan PatrickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · Saturday, June 20, 2015Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Mairbek Taisumov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:30

Style matchupMairbek Taisumov: Well-roundedvsAlan Patrick: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alan Patrick wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Mairbek Taisumov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Patrick at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mairbek Taisumov is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Alan Patrick has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Mairbek Taisumov has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mairbek Taisumov has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alan Patrick (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mairbek Taisumov
Red Corner
VS
Alan Patrick
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1492
Elo
1425
37
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mairbek Taisumov
oldest →
W
KOvs Anthony Christodoulou · Jan 15
W
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Apr 16
W
KOvs Felipe Silva · Sep 17
W
vs Desmond Green · Sep 18
L
vs Diego Ferreira · Sep 19
latest
Alan PatrickL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Stevie Ray · Sep 16
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18
L
KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18
L
vs Bobby Green · Sep 20
L
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mairbek TaisumovMetricAlan Patrick
2.98
Strikes / min
1.82
3.03
Strikes absorbed / min
2.95
64%
Strike defense
43%
1.34
TDs / 15 min
3.01
88%
Takedown defense
43%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.05Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap-1.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1539Strikes26.3 vs 28.0Takedowns1.8 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.7 vs 1.0
Mairbek TaisumovAlan Patrick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Mairbek Taisumov(9 fights)Alan Patrick(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +67.0|Blue -67.0
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -357.0|Blue +357.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mairbek TaisumovTargetAlan Patrick

By target zone

15
44% acc · 65%
Head
5
21% acc · 29%
7
88% acc · 30%
Body
8
80% acc · 47%
1
100% acc · 4%
Leg
4
100% acc · 24%

By position

14
48% acc · 61%
Distance
15
43% acc · 88%
1
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 12%
8
62% acc · 35%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mairbek Taisumov rounds
0
even
1
Alan Patrick rounds
Round 1Alan Patrick edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:03
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Round 2Mairbek Taisumov edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:12
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
23 / 43
Sig Strikes
17 / 38
53%
Sig Str %
39%
24 / 44
Total Strikes
17 / 38
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 7
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:15
Ctrl Time
0:23

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alan Patrick14 / 2714 / 270 / 50
1Mairbek Taisumov10 / 2111 / 220 / 00
2Alan Patrick3 / 113 / 110 / 20
2Mairbek Taisumov13 / 2213 / 220 / 00

Mairbek Taisumov

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9

Alan Patrick

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9