Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Polyana Viana won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1460

Maia StevensonvsPolyana VianaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Saturday, February 3, 2018Belem, Para, Brazil

Official fight result

Polyana Viana won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:50

Model Prediction: Polyana Viana wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Polyana Viana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Polyana Viana at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Polyana Viana enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Polyana Viana has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Maia Stevenson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Polyana Viana has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Maia Stevenson

Red Corner

Polyana Viana

Blue Corner

+350

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-440

(81%)

1491

Elo

1460

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

157.48 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maia StevensonNo prior UFC fights on record.

Polyana VianaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jinh Yu Frey · Nov 22

SUBvs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 23

KOvs Gillian Robertson · Jan 24

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Apr 25

SUBvs Alice Ardelean · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maia StevensonMetricPolyana Viana

1.57

Strikes / min

2.74

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

2.50

33%

Strike defense

53%

3.91

TDs / 15 min

0.75

50%

Takedown defense

35%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.56Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap+0.24

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maia Stevenson(1 fights)Polyana Viana(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.8|Blue -30.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maia StevensonTargetPolyana Viana

By target zone

17% acc · 17%

Head

69% acc · 92%

100% acc · 50%

Body

50% acc · 8%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 67%

Distance

50% acc · 33%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

Ground

88% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maia Stevenson rounds

even

Polyana Viana rounds

Round 1Polyana Viana edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:28

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 11

Sig Strikes

12 / 18

54%

Sig Str %

66%

11 / 16

Total Strikes

25 / 35

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Polyana Viana	12 / 18	25 / 35	1 / 2	3
1	Maia Stevenson	6 / 11	11 / 16	1 / 1	0

Maia Stevenson

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights1

Polyana Viana

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11