Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gauge Young won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1526

MaheshatevsGauge YoungUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Gauge Young won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMaheshate: StrikervsGauge Young: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Gauge Young wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Gauge Young wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gauge Young at -138 American odds

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gauge Young has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Maheshate

Red Corner

Gauge Young

Blue Corner

+118

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-138

(58%)

1486

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maheshate

oldest →

KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Dec 22

KOvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 23

vs Gabriel Benitez · Apr 24

vs Nikolas Motta · Nov 24

latest

Gauge Young

oldest →

vs Evan Elder · Apr 25

DECvs Thiago Moises · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

MaheshateMetricGauge Young

3.96

Strikes / min

6.32

5.96

Strikes absorbed / min

5.12

51%

Strike defense

49%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.75

47%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.00Δ 3.20 — meaningful gap+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

MaheshateGauge Young

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maheshate(6 fights)Gauge Young(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.6|Blue +40.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

MaheshateTargetGauge Young

By target zone

36% acc · 64%

Head

46% acc · 57%

67% acc · 18%

Body

72% acc · 21%

86% acc · 18%

Leg

83% acc · 22%

By position

42% acc · 91%

Distance

103

54% acc · 92%

86% acc · 9%

Clinch

80% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maheshate rounds

even

Gauge Young rounds

Round 1Gauge Young edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:01

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 2Gauge Young edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:04

45Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Gauge Young edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:07

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 150

Sig Strikes

112 / 200

43.3%

Sig Str %

55.7%

79 / 166

Total Strikes

131 / 221

0 / 7

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

3:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gauge Young	31 / 53	34 / 56	1 / 1
1	Maheshate	18 / 44	21 / 48	0 / 2
2	Gauge Young	45 / 78	49 / 83	1 / 3
2	Maheshate	24 / 52	27 / 55	0 / 0
3	Gauge Young	36 / 69	48 / 82	1 / 2
3	Maheshate	24 / 54	31 / 63	0 / 5

Maheshate

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Gauge Young

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2