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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Magomed Mustafaev won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1492

Elo1509

Magomed MustafaevvsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Saturday, April 20, 2019Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Official fight result

Magomed Mustafaev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:26

Style matchupMagomed Mustafaev: WrestlervsRafael Fiziev: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Magomed Mustafaev wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Magomed Mustafaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Mustafaev at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Magomed Mustafaev is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Rafael Fiziev has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Mustafaev

Red Corner

Rafael Fiziev

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1492

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed MustafaevL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 15

KOvs Joe Proctor · Dec 15

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Nov 16

vs Brad Riddell · Feb 20

latest

Rafael Fiziev

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23

vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26

KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed MustafaevMetricRafael Fiziev

2.59

Strikes / min

4.71

2.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.84

41%

Strike defense

49%

3.31

TDs / 15 min

0.83

23%

Takedown defense

90%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magomed MustafaevRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magomed Mustafaev(5 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.1|Blue +17.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed MustafaevTargetRafael Fiziev

By target zone

78% acc · 70%

Head

100% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

67% acc · 40%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 60%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magomed Mustafaev rounds

even

Rafael Fiziev rounds

Round 1Magomed Mustafaev edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 12

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

83%

Sig Str %

100%

11 / 13

Total Strikes

1 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Fiziev	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Magomed Mustafaev	10 / 12	11 / 13	0 / 0	0

Magomed Mustafaev

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights13