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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Bruno Lopes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1497

Elo1470

Magomed GadzhiyasulovvsBruno LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bruno Lopes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMagomed Gadzhiyasulov: WrestlervsBruno Lopes: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Bruno Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bruno Lopes has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

Red Corner

Bruno Lopes

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1497

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

oldest →

vs Brendson Ribeiro · Jun 24

latest

Bruno LopesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · May 25

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed GadzhiyasulovMetricBruno Lopes

2.89

Strikes / min

2.88

1.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.21

62%

Strike defense

54%

3.67

TDs / 15 min

1.93

61%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.25Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magomed GadzhiyasulovBruno Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov(2 fights)Bruno Lopes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.4|Blue -27.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed GadzhiyasulovTargetBruno Lopes

By target zone

23% acc · 29%

Head

44% acc · 64%

77% acc · 32%

Body

77% acc · 30%

86% acc · 39%

Leg

22% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 77%

Distance

21% acc · 24%

54% acc · 23%

Clinch

85% acc · 67%

Ground

60% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov rounds

even

Bruno Lopes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:05Control

Round 2Bruno Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:14

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:59Control

Round 3Bruno Lopes edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 67

Sig Strikes

33 / 70

46.3%

Sig Str %

46.3%

68 / 106

Total Strikes

73 / 126

0 / 3

TDs

5 / 14

TD %

34.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

9:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Lopes	4 / 21	16 / 41	1 / 3
1	Magomed Gadzhiyasulov	15 / 23	45 / 55	0 / 0
2	Bruno Lopes	17 / 31	27 / 47	1 / 3
2	Magomed Gadzhiyasulov	9 / 27	15 / 33	0 / 3
3	Bruno Lopes	12 / 18	30 / 38	3 / 8
3	Magomed Gadzhiyasulov	7 / 17	8 / 18	0 / 0

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2

Bruno Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3