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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rogerio Bontorin won · S-DEC R3

Elo1370

Elo1494

Magomed BibulatovvsRogerio BontorinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Rogerio Bontorin won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMagomed Bibulatov: WrestlervsRogerio Bontorin: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Magomed Bibulatov wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Rogerio Bontorin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Bibulatov at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Magomed Bibulatov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Bibulatov

Red Corner

Rogerio Bontorin

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1370

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Bibulatov

oldest →

vs Jenel Lausa · Apr 17

KOvs John Moraga · Oct 17

latest

Rogerio Bontorin

oldest →

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Aug 19

vs Ray Borg · Feb 20

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Mar 21

vs Matt Schnell · May 21

vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed BibulatovMetricRogerio Bontorin

3.60

Strikes / min

2.63

1.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

52%

Strike defense

50%

2.85

TDs / 15 min

2.90

75%

Takedown defense

51%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.77Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magomed BibulatovRogerio Bontorin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magomed Bibulatov(3 fights)Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -123.8|Blue +123.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed BibulatovTargetRogerio Bontorin

By target zone

37% acc · 36%

Head

44% acc · 68%

90% acc · 60%

Body

92% acc · 28%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 5%

By position

53% acc · 71%

Distance

47% acc · 83%

88% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

75% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magomed Bibulatov rounds

even

Rogerio Bontorin rounds

Round 1Magomed Bibulatov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control0:20

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 2Magomed Bibulatov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:03

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Magomed Bibulatov edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:54

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 98

Sig Strikes

40 / 77

58.3%

Sig Str %

52.7%

66 / 107

Total Strikes

52 / 89

4 / 8

TDs

1 / 3

41.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

2:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rogerio Bontorin	13 / 20	23 / 30	0 / 0	2
1	Magomed Bibulatov	14 / 24	16 / 26	3 / 4	0
2	Rogerio Bontorin	12 / 28	14 / 30	0 / 1	0
2	Magomed Bibulatov	18 / 32	22 / 37	1 / 2	0
3	Rogerio Bontorin	15 / 29	15 / 29	1 / 2	0
3	Magomed Bibulatov	26 / 42	28 / 44	0 / 2	0

Magomed Bibulatov

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3

Rogerio Bontorin

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6