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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Magomed Ankalaev won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1538
Magomed Ankalaev editorial illustration
Elo1489

Magomed AnkalaevvsMarcin PrachnioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Saturday, September 15, 2018Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:09

Style matchupMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive strikervsMarcin Prachnio: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Magomed Ankalaev has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Ankalaev
Red Corner
VS
Marcin Prachnio
Blue Corner
-560
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+430
(19%)
1538
Elo
1489
34
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Ankalaev
oldest →
W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24
W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24
W
vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25
L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25
W
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26
latest
Marcin PrachnioL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs William Knight · Feb 23
L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23
W
vs Devin Clark · Feb 24
L
SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24
L
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed AnkalaevMetricMarcin Prachnio
3.65
Strikes / min
5.52
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
3.15
56%
Strike defense
54%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
0.14
87%
Takedown defense
53%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.06Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+2.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1486Strikes59.0 vs 15.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Magomed AnkalaevMarcin Prachnio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +49.1|Blue -49.1
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed AnkalaevTargetMarcin Prachnio

By target zone

10
40% acc · 83%
Head
1
7% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 8%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
2
50% acc · 67%

By position

8
38% acc · 67%
Distance
3
14% acc · 100%
2
50% acc · 17%
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Magomed Ankalaev rounds
0
even
0
Marcin Prachnio rounds
Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
12 / 27
Sig Strikes
3 / 22
44%
Sig Str %
13%
12 / 27
Total Strikes
3 / 22
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marcin Prachnio3 / 223 / 220 / 00
1Magomed Ankalaev12 / 2712 / 270 / 00

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights16

Marcin Prachnio

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights11