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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Magomed Ankalaev won · U-DEC R3
Elo1538
Magomed Ankalaev editorial illustration
Elo1385
Klidson Abreu

Magomed AnkalaevvsKlidson AbreuUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Saturday, February 23, 2019Prague, Czech Republic

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Ankalaev
Red Corner
VS
Klidson Abreu
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1538
Elo
1385
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Ankalaev
oldest →
W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24
W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24
W
vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25
L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25
W
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26
latest
Klidson AbreuL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sam Alvey · Jul 19
L
vs Shamil Gamzatov · Nov 19
L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · May 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed AnkalaevMetricKlidson Abreu
3.65
Strikes / min
2.05
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
56%
Strike defense
55%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
0.64
87%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.06Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1500Strikes35.5 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.2 vs 0.0
Magomed AnkalaevKlidson Abreu

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)Klidson Abreu(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +153.4|Blue -153.4
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed AnkalaevTargetKlidson Abreu

By target zone

22
40% acc · 73%
Head
10
24% acc · 43%
6
67% acc · 20%
Body
8
53% acc · 35%
2
67% acc · 7%
Leg
5
83% acc · 22%

By position

18
35% acc · 60%
Distance
16
30% acc · 70%
6
67% acc · 20%
Clinch
7
78% acc · 30%
6
86% acc · 20%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Magomed Ankalaev rounds
1
even
0
Klidson Abreu rounds
Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control2:43
Knockdowns1
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control1:39
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 3Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control1:26
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
30 / 67
Sig Strikes
23 / 62
44.3%
Sig Str %
39.3%
66 / 107
Total Strikes
32 / 73
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 5
33%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:48
Ctrl Time
0:28

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Klidson Abreu8 / 2111 / 250 / 30
1Magomed Ankalaev9 / 2227 / 430 / 00
2Klidson Abreu11 / 1716 / 220 / 20
2Magomed Ankalaev9 / 1913 / 230 / 00
3Klidson Abreu4 / 245 / 260 / 00
3Magomed Ankalaev12 / 2626 / 411 / 30

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights16

Klidson Abreu

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4