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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Magomed Ankalaev won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1538
Magomed Ankalaev editorial illustration
Elo1495

Magomed AnkalaevvsJohnny WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:42

Style matchupMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive strikervsJohnny Walker: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -520 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Magomed Ankalaev is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Johnny Walker has lost 57% of fights by KO.
  • Johnny Walker is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Magomed Ankalaev has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Magomed Ankalaev has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Johnny Walker has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Ankalaev
Red Corner
VS
Johnny Walker
Blue Corner
-520
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+390
(20%)
1538
Elo
1495
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'6"
190.5 cm
Reach
208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Ankalaev
oldest →
W
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 22
W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24
W
vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25
L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25
W
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26
latest
Johnny Walker
oldest →
W
KOvs Paul Craig · Jan 23
W
vs Anthony Smith · May 23
L
KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Jun 24
W
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Aug 25
L
DECvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed AnkalaevMetricJohnny Walker
3.65
Strikes / min
3.90
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
56%
Strike defense
46%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
0.36
87%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.06evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1622 vs 1558Strikes3.6 vs 3.9Takedowns1.0 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.90Form1.0 vs 0.7
Magomed AnkalaevJohnny Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)Johnny Walker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +43.3|Blue -43.3
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +287.0|Blue -287.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed AnkalaevTargetJohnny Walker

By target zone

8
36% acc · 21%
Head
2
6% acc · 8%
6
86% acc · 15%
Body
3
50% acc · 13%
25
86% acc · 64%
Leg
19
61% acc · 79%

By position

38
67% acc · 97%
Distance
24
34% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 3%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Magomed Ankalaev rounds
0
even
0
Johnny Walker rounds
Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:02
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
39 / 58
Sig Strikes
24 / 71
69.5%
Sig Str %
36%
39 / 58
Total Strikes
26 / 73
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Johnny Walker15 / 5017 / 520 / 00
1Magomed Ankalaev17 / 3317 / 330 / 00
2Johnny Walker9 / 219 / 210 / 00
2Magomed Ankalaev22 / 2522 / 250 / 00

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights16

Johnny Walker

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights14