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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Magomed Ankalaev won · KO/TKO

Elo1538

Elo1498

Magomed AnkalaevvsIon CutelabaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Saturday, October 24, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

KO/TKO

Style matchupMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive strikervsIon Cutelaba: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Ankalaev

Red Corner

Ion Cutelaba

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1538

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Ankalaev

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24

vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26

latest

Ion Cutelaba

oldest →

vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24

SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25

vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25

SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed AnkalaevMetricIon Cutelaba

3.65

Strikes / min

4.23

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

56%

Strike defense

47%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

3.76

87%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.06evenly matched on net striking+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magomed AnkalaevIon Cutelaba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.4|Blue -40.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed AnkalaevTargetIon Cutelaba

By target zone

47% acc · 81%

Head

19% acc · 45%

67% acc · 10%

Body

50% acc · 18%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

80% acc · 36%

By position

45% acc · 67%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magomed Ankalaev rounds

even

Ion Cutelaba rounds

Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns2

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 41

Sig Strikes

11 / 36

51%

Sig Str %

30%

21 / 41

Total Strikes

11 / 36

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ion Cutelaba	11 / 36	11 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Magomed Ankalaev	21 / 41	21 / 41	0 / 0	0

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights20