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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Magomed Ankalaev won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1538
Magomed Ankalaev editorial illustration
Elo1522
Bogdan Guskov editorial illustration

Magomed AnkalaevvsBogdan GuskovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 2:41

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Magomed Ankalaev

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -479 American odds · hypothetical only

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Style matchupMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive strikervsBogdan Guskov: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bogdan Guskov is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Magomed Ankalaev has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Magomed Ankalaev has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Ankalaev
Red Corner
VS
Bogdan Guskov
Blue Corner
-561
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+407
(20%)
1538
Elo
1522
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Ankalaev
oldest →
W
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 22
W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24
W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24
W
vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25
L
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25
latest
Bogdan Guskov
oldest →
W
KOvs Zac Pauga · Feb 24
W
KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25
D
vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed AnkalaevMetricBogdan Guskov
3.65
Strikes / min
4.57
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
56%
Strike defense
44%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
0.00
87%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.06evenly matched on net striking+0.48
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)Bogdan Guskov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.8|Blue -15.8
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -14.9|Blue +14.9
Layoff
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed AnkalaevTargetBogdan Guskov

By target zone

19
30% acc · 35%
Head
2
10% acc · 5%
26
67% acc · 48%
Body
3
75% acc · 8%
9
82% acc · 17%
Leg
34
89% acc · 87%

By position

44
45% acc · 81%
Distance
39
62% acc · 100%
4
100% acc · 7%
Clinch
0
6
55% acc · 11%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Magomed Ankalaev rounds
1
even
0
Bogdan Guskov rounds
Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control1:21
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control4:50
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Magomed Ankalaev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:15
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
54 / 113
Sig Strikes
39 / 63
48.6%
Sig Str %
57.6%
156 / 235
Total Strikes
45 / 70
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
3
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
8:26
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Bogdan Guskov11 / 2211 / 220 / 00
1Magomed Ankalaev19 / 3919 / 390 / 10
2Magomed Ankalaev14 / 2929 / 440 / 10
2Bogdan Guskov12 / 1715 / 210 / 00
3Magomed Ankalaev15 / 3315 / 330 / 00
3Bogdan Guskov15 / 2215 / 220 / 00
4Bogdan Guskov1 / 14 / 40 / 00
4Magomed Ankalaev3 / 556 / 691 / 13
5Magomed Ankalaev3 / 737 / 501 / 10
5Bogdan Guskov0 / 10 / 10 / 01

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Magomed Ankalaev
Odds
-479

Market-implied probability

Magomed Ankalaev 79%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Magomed Ankalaev (model pick · research)$121
Bogdan Guskov$453

79% market-implied · model 60% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -479 · never rewritten

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights16

Bogdan Guskov

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights8