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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Magomed Ankalaev won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1538

Elo1485

Magomed AnkalaevvsAnthony SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Magomed Ankalaev won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:09

Model Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Magomed Ankalaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Ankalaev at -610 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Magomed Ankalaev is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Anthony Smith has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Magomed Ankalaev has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Magomed Ankalaev has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Ankalaev

Red Corner

Anthony Smith

Blue Corner

-610

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

1538

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed Ankalaev

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24

vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26

latest

Anthony SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Dec 23

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · May 24

vs Roman Dolidze · Jun 24

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Dec 24

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed AnkalaevMetricAnthony Smith

3.65

Strikes / min

3.19

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

5.04

56%

Strike defense

44%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.44

87%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.06Δ 2.91 — meaningful gap-1.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magomed AnkalaevAnthony Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)Anthony Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.9|Blue -52.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed AnkalaevTargetAnthony Smith

By target zone

52% acc · 67%

Head

29% acc · 33%

67% acc · 13%

Body

63% acc · 28%

90% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 39%

By position

50% acc · 50%

Distance

49% acc · 94%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

69% acc · 48%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magomed Ankalaev rounds

even

Anthony Smith rounds

Round 1Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:35

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Magomed Ankalaev edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:51

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 79

Sig Strikes

18 / 36

58%

Sig Str %

47%

64 / 102

Total Strikes

21 / 39

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:26

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Smith	13 / 23	16 / 26	0 / 0
1	Magomed Ankalaev	20 / 41	23 / 48	0 / 0
2	Anthony Smith	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 1
2	Magomed Ankalaev	26 / 38	41 / 54	0 / 0

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16

Anthony Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25