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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Magnus Cedenblad won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1496

Magnus CedenbladvsKrzysztof JotkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Magnus Cedenblad won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:59

Style matchupMagnus Cedenblad: WrestlervsKrzysztof Jotko: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Magnus Cedenblad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Krzysztof Jotko at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Magnus Cedenblad threatens submissions; Krzysztof Jotko has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Krzysztof Jotko has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Krzysztof Jotko has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Magnus Cedenblad

Red Corner

Krzysztof Jotko

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1491

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'5"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magnus Cedenblad

oldest →

SUBvs Francis Carmont · Apr 12

SUBvs Jared Hamman · Aug 13

vs Scott Askham · Oct 14

KOvs Garreth McLellan · May 16

KOvs Jack Marshman · Nov 16

latest

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magnus CedenbladMetricKrzysztof Jotko

2.38

Strikes / min

2.98

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

40%

Strike defense

57%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

1.33

66%

Takedown defense

82%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.64Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magnus CedenbladKrzysztof Jotko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magnus Cedenblad(6 fights)Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.4|Blue +5.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +97.0|Blue -97.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magnus CedenbladTargetKrzysztof Jotko

By target zone

35% acc · 35%

Head

50% acc · 67%

73% acc · 47%

Body

100% acc · 20%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

40% acc · 47%

Distance

50% acc · 67%

88% acc · 41%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

67% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magnus Cedenblad rounds

even

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

Round 1Magnus Cedenblad edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:10

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Magnus Cedenblad edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:18

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 31

Sig Strikes

15 / 25

56.5%

Sig Str %

58.5%

58 / 83

Total Strikes

63 / 77

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 2

58%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:28

Ctrl Time

1:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Krzysztof Jotko	10 / 13	29 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Magnus Cedenblad	7 / 11	33 / 44	2 / 3	0
2	Krzysztof Jotko	5 / 12	34 / 43	0 / 2	0
2	Magnus Cedenblad	10 / 20	25 / 39	1 / 2	1

Magnus Cedenblad

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16