Middleweight

3 Rounds

Magnus Cedenblad won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1360

Magnus CedenbladvsGarreth McLellanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Magnus Cedenblad won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:47

Model Prediction: Garreth McLellan wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Magnus Cedenblad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garreth McLellan at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Garreth McLellan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Magnus Cedenblad has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Magnus Cedenblad has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Garreth McLellan (53.5%).
Magnus Cedenblad has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Magnus Cedenblad

Red Corner

Garreth McLellan

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1491

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'5"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magnus Cedenblad

oldest →

SUBvs Francis Carmont · Apr 12

SUBvs Jared Hamman · Aug 13

SUBvs Krzysztof Jotko · May 14

vs Scott Askham · Oct 14

KOvs Jack Marshman · Nov 16

latest

Garreth McLellanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bartosz Fabinski · Apr 15

KOvs Bubba Bush · Oct 15

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 16

KOvs Paulo Costa · Mar 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magnus CedenbladMetricGarreth McLellan

2.38

Strikes / min

3.56

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.94

40%

Strike defense

45%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

1.15

66%

Takedown defense

34%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.64Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magnus CedenbladGarreth McLellan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magnus Cedenblad(6 fights)Garreth McLellan(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.1|Blue -131.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +385.0|Blue -385.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magnus CedenbladTargetGarreth McLellan

By target zone

44% acc · 76%

Head

12% acc · 17%

63% acc · 24%

Body

25% acc · 8%

Leg

75% acc · 75%

By position

46% acc · 76%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

56% acc · 24%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magnus Cedenblad rounds

even

Garreth McLellan rounds

Round 1Magnus Cedenblad edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Magnus Cedenblad edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 44

Sig Strikes

12 / 33

48.5%

Sig Str %

29.5%

21 / 44

Total Strikes

12 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Garreth McLellan	11 / 28	11 / 28	0 / 0
1	Magnus Cedenblad	11 / 26	11 / 26	0 / 0
2	Garreth McLellan	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0
2	Magnus Cedenblad	10 / 18	10 / 18	0 / 0

Magnus Cedenblad

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights6

Garreth McLellan

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5