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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mads Burnell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1366

Mads BurnellvsMike SantiagoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Sunday, January 14, 2018St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Mads Burnell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMads Burnell: WrestlervsMike Santiago: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mike Santiago wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Mads Burnell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Santiago at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mads Burnell has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Santiago has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mads Burnell

Red Corner

Mike Santiago

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1491

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mads BurnellL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Sep 17

SUBvs Arnold Allen · May 18

latest

Mike SantiagoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Sep 17

KOvs Dan Ige · Jun 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mads BurnellMetricMike Santiago

1.28

Strikes / min

3.44

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

51%

Strike defense

36%

3.45

TDs / 15 min

2.66

22%

Takedown defense

53%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.43Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mads BurnellMike Santiago

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mads Burnell(3 fights)Mike Santiago(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +125.3|Blue -125.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mads BurnellTargetMike Santiago

By target zone

59% acc · 100%

Head

61% acc · 67%

Body

79% acc · 22%

Leg

67% acc · 12%

By position

33% acc · 25%

Distance

45% acc · 25%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

79% acc · 43%

78% acc · 70%

Ground

73% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mads Burnell rounds

even

Mike Santiago rounds

Round 1Mike Santiago edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:24

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 2Mike Santiago edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:14

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:33

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 34

Sig Strikes

51 / 79

71%

Sig Str %

64%

110 / 169

Total Strikes

95 / 127

3 / 7

TDs

3 / 3

58.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:11

Ctrl Time

4:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Santiago	17 / 27	28 / 39	2 / 2	2
1	Mads Burnell	1 / 1	19 / 30	1 / 4	0
2	Mike Santiago	17 / 25	24 / 34	1 / 1	0
2	Mads Burnell	13 / 22	29 / 49	1 / 1	1
3	Mike Santiago	17 / 27	43 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Mads Burnell	6 / 11	62 / 90	1 / 2	0

Mads Burnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Mike Santiago

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3