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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Yana Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1474

Elo1527

Macy ChiassonvsYana SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yana Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Yana Santos wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Yana Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yana Santos at -134 American odds

+$75 profit

$175 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Macy Chiasson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Macy Chiasson

Red Corner

Yana Santos

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

-134

(57%)

1474

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'6"

182.88 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Macy ChiassonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Irene Aldana · Sep 22

SUBvs Pannie Kianzad · Mar 24

KOvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jun 24

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 25

vs Ailin Perez · Feb 26

latest

Yana SantosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Holly Holm · Mar 23

vs Karol Rosa · Jul 23

vs Chelsea Chandler · Aug 24

vs Miesha Tate · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Macy ChiassonMetricYana Santos

3.21

Strikes / min

4.41

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.12

44%

Strike defense

52%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

0.78

62%

Takedown defense

51%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.45evenly matched on net striking+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Macy ChiassonYana Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Macy Chiasson(10 fights)Yana Santos(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.9|Blue +52.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Macy ChiassonTargetYana Santos

By target zone

33% acc · 46%

Head

39% acc · 45%

71% acc · 46%

Body

72% acc · 48%

57% acc · 7%

Leg

71% acc · 8%

By position

30% acc · 44%

Distance

40% acc · 45%

86% acc · 46%

Clinch

71% acc · 55%

63% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Macy Chiasson rounds

even

Yana Santos rounds

Round 1Yana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:03

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Macy Chiasson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:40

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 118

Sig Strikes

65 / 124

44.7%

Sig Str %

44.7%

91 / 158

Total Strikes

115 / 176

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:43

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yana Santos	31 / 50	40 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Macy Chiasson	14 / 33	24 / 44	0 / 1	0
2	Yana Santos	31 / 52	55 / 76	0 / 0	0
2	Macy Chiasson	25 / 50	32 / 57	1 / 1	0
3	Yana Santos	3 / 22	20 / 41	0 / 1	0
3	Macy Chiasson	15 / 35	35 / 57	1 / 1	1

Macy Chiasson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Yana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5