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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Pineda won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1489

Mackens SemerziervsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · Friday, March 2, 2012Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Daniel Pineda won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:05

Style matchupMackens Semerzier: WrestlervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mackens Semerzier wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Daniel Pineda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackens Semerzier at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Mackens Semerzier

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1490

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackens Semerzier

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Mar 11

latest

Daniel PinedaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackens SemerzierMetricDaniel Pineda

2.91

Strikes / min

2.85

3.48

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

46%

Strike defense

45%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

1.42

50%

Takedown defense

54%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.57evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackens SemerzierDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackens Semerzier(2 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +300.0|Blue -300.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackens SemerzierTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

57% acc · 44%

Head

61% acc · 79%

100% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

67% acc · 67%

Distance

63% acc · 71%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

75% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackens Semerzier rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:20

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 12

Sig Strikes

14 / 21

75%

Sig Str %

66%

9 / 12

Total Strikes

15 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Pineda	14 / 21	15 / 22	0 / 0	2
1	Mackens Semerzier	9 / 12	9 / 12	0 / 0	0

Mackens Semerzier

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13