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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Curt Warburton won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
Maciej Jewtuszko
Elo1490

Maciej JewtuszkovsCurt WarburtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · Saturday, February 26, 2011Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Curt Warburton won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Curt Warburton wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Curt Warburton wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curt Warburton at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Maciej Jewtuszko has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Curt Warburton has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Maciej Jewtuszko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Maciej Jewtuszko
Red Corner
VS
Curt Warburton
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1490
Elo
1490
45
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
188 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maciej JewtuszkoNo prior UFC fights on record.
Curt WarburtonL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Spencer Fisher · Oct 10
L
SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Jun 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maciej JewtuszkoMetricCurt Warburton
2.29
Strikes / min
2.13
1.39
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
66%
Strike defense
43%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.35
42%
Takedown defense
83%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.90Δ 2.21 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1480Strikes— vs 45.0Takedowns— vs 1.0Sub Atts— vs 2.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Maciej JewtuszkoCurt Warburton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Maciej Jewtuszko(1 fights)Curt Warburton(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maciej JewtuszkoTargetCurt Warburton

By target zone

19
35% acc · 63%
Head
13
27% acc · 72%
9
100% acc · 30%
Body
1
100% acc · 6%
2
67% acc · 7%
Leg
4
50% acc · 22%

By position

26
43% acc · 87%
Distance
14
33% acc · 78%
4
67% acc · 13%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 6%
0
Ground
3
23% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Maciej Jewtuszko rounds
0
even
2
Curt Warburton rounds
Round 1Curt Warburton edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:49Control
Round 2Curt Warburton edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:18Control
Round 3Maciej Jewtuszko edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
30 / 67
Sig Strikes
18 / 58
38.3%
Sig Str %
30.7%
45 / 86
Total Strikes
52 / 112
0 / 0
TDs
4 / 7
—
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
8:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Curt Warburton3 / 1926 / 521 / 10
1Maciej Jewtuszko1 / 45 / 80 / 00
2Curt Warburton7 / 2014 / 302 / 20
2Maciej Jewtuszko11 / 2816 / 340 / 00
3Curt Warburton8 / 1912 / 301 / 40
3Maciej Jewtuszko18 / 3524 / 440 / 00

Maciej Jewtuszko

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights1

Curt Warburton

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3